Pakistan, India, and South Asia's Endless Rivalry: Can Backchannel Diplomacy Bring Stability?

For over seventy-five years, relations between Pakistan and India have moved between brief moments of optimism and prolonged periods of hostility. Both nations inherited deep mistrust from the 1947 partition and unresolved disputes from the British Raj. Instead of resolving these conflicts, political systems, media narratives, and public sentiment on both sides have entrenched a culture of rivalry.

From Cooperation to Conflict

In the decade following independence, there was a greater appetite for collaboration. Between 1947 and 1957, India and Pakistan signed 12 landmark agreements covering trade, banking, air travel, minority rights, and cultural exchanges. The 1950 Nehru-Liaquat Agreement, for example, sought to protect minority communities and reduce tensions. Agreements on air services and banking helped citizens maintain crucial connections during the challenging early years.

However, the wars of 1965 and 1971 disrupted cooperation, shifting the focus to repairing damaged relations. Despite these setbacks, democratic governments on both sides attempted to revive dialogue. The 1974 agreements on visa relaxation and trade normalization, as well as the Lahore Declaration of 1999, proved that progress was possible when political will existed. Similarly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore in 2015 created another opening though both opportunities were cut short by subsequent crises.

A New Era of Hostility

The 21st century has witnessed a steep decline in diplomacy. India’s 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, suspension of cross-LoC trade, and withdrawal of Pakistan’s Most Favoured Nation status further strained ties. Pakistan responded by downgrading diplomatic relations and halting trade, freezing dialogue entirely.

India’s “Modi Doctrine” promises firm retaliation to threats, rejects nuclear blackmail, and treats Pakistan’s leadership and militant masterminds alike—lowering the threshold for conflict. In turn, Pakistan’s shift from “defensive defence” to “offensive defence” reflects a readiness for preemptive action. Both nations are rapidly modernizing their militaries while showing little interest in political compromise.

Can Backchannel Diplomacy Help?

Direct talks are unlikely in the near future, especially after the limited clashes of 2019 and 2025. Many experts believe that focusing on stability, rather than immediate peace, is the most realistic short-term goal. Backchannel diplomacy such as the successful 2021 reaffirmation of the LoC ceasefire—could serve as a starting point.

Small humanitarian measures could help ease tensions: reinstating medical visas, facilitating family reunions, and encouraging cultural exchanges through arts and sports. Civil society organizations, journalists, and academics can also play a critical role in rebuilding trust outside formal channels.

The Road Ahead

Reviving SAARC and developing a joint counterterrorism framework could open new paths for dialogue. Europe’s post-war transformation from conflict to cooperation offers an instructive model for South Asia.

For now, the challenge is not just improving relations but preventing further deterioration. Steady, incremental steps toward normalization could preserve the possibility of future peace. The real question is whether leaders on both sides are willing to take those steps or if entrenched rivalry will continue to define the destiny of the region.